French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a snap election could lead to deadlock.
According to an IFOP projection published on June 24, no political party would win enough seats to have a clear majority in the next French Parliament.
Some 577 elected members will make up the French National Assembly. If a political party or coalition obtains at least 289 deputies, it has an absolute majority.
The hard-right party National Rally (RN) with allies including Eric Ciotti’s To the Right! movement could secure up to 260 seats. The New Popular Front left-wing alliance is projected to win up to 215 seats. Macron’s Renaissance party is forecast to win 100 seats.
In that scenario, de facto RN leader Marine Le Pen’s party would seem to be in a relatively comfortable position.
Indeed, if a party obtains at least 230 seats, as was the case for Macron’s Renaissance at the last ballot, it has a “governing minority”. But the RN would not be able to govern alone and would have to forge alliances to pass legislation. A coalition with the hard-right party in the French National Assembly looks unlikely.
During the electoral campaign, Renaissance, the Republican party and the left-wing coalition have vowed to stop RN from taking control of French institutions and governing the country.
In an Instagram post on June 14, Squeezie, whose real name is Lucas Hauchard, cautioned his 8.7 million followers about the National Rally (RN) stating: “National Rally won’t help you.”https://t.co/mHYN4E2TzH
— Brussels Signal (@brusselssignal) June 17, 2024
According to the daily media outlet La Lettre, Macron is considering keeping Gabriel Attal as French Prime Minister in the event of defeat.
Macron reportedly has his lawyers working on the hypothesis of RN gaining only a governing minority. They indicated the impact of the Olympic Games could help prolong Attal’s tenure. This means Attal could stay Prime Minister to see the Olympic Games through.
In his call on June 9 for the snap elections, Macron said he wanted the French to give “clarity” and give “back the choice of the parliamentary future by voting”.
Faced with a troublesome political situation on top of institutional paralysis, some speculate his political gamble could lead to his resignation.
Le Pen stated on June 21 that in the event of political deadlock, “the only way out of a potential political crisis is for the President to resign”.
If it proves impossible to form a governing coalition, an unheard of event under the Fifth Republic, complete political deadlock would ensue.
As of now, the President has ruled out the possibility of resigning. Neither parliament nor the government can force him to step down.
On June 23, in a “letter to the French” published in the regional press, he confirmed that he would complete his term of office.
Some 577 elected members will make up the next French National Assembly. The vote will take place on June 30 and July 7.
Macron increasingly isolated following election gamble. https://t.co/3JaWY7yeeo
— Brussels Signal (@brusselssignal) June 24, 2024
