Countries around the world are placing greater emphasis on nuclear weapons as tools of national power and deterrence amid rising geopolitical tensions, according to the authoritative SIPRI Yearbook 2026 released today by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
The report shows that all nine nuclear-armed countries — the United States, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea — are actively modernising their arsenals.
After decades of gradual decline, global nuclear inventories are once again increasing, with several powers expanding the size and capabilities of their forces.
Of the total global inventory of an estimated 12,187 warheads in January 2026, about 9,745 were in military stockpiles for potential use.
Between 2,100 and 2,200 of the deployed warheads were kept in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles. Nearly all of them belonged to either Russia or the US.
SIPRI notes a clear shift in military doctrines where nuclear weapons are no longer seen purely as weapons of last resort but as usable instruments of coercion and power projection.
The institute highlights that the risk of nuclear escalation is now higher than at any point since the end of the Cold War.
Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, combined with intensifying rivalry between the United States and China, have driven states to place renewed importance on their nuclear capabilities.
Arms control agreements continue to erode, with New START effectively suspended and no new trilateral talks involving China underway.
“Influential voices, including some world leaders, are advocating nuclear weapons as a guarantee against attack by a hostile state. But making national defence and security strategies dependent—or more dependent—on nuclear weapons could significantly increase nuclear risks,” said SIPRI Director Karim Haggag.
“The dangers associated with nuclear weapons are growing due to advances in weapon technology, the breakdown of nuclear arms control and heightened geopolitical tensions, among a range of other factors. At the same time, world events—not least the outbreak of conflict between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan—are challenging nuclear deterrence logic.”
“The evidence is growing that the nuclear weapon states are sidelining, and even walking away from, their disarmament commitments and are instead flexing their nuclear muscles”, said Hans M. Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).
“By reaching for nuclear solutions, states are creating new risks and fuelling arms-race dynamics.”
For Europe, the findings are particularly alarming.
Russia’s repeated nuclear threats over Ukraine and China’s rapid nuclear expansion are forcing European capitals to reconsider their long-standing reliance on American extended deterrence.
COMMENT: There will be no European Union nuclear deterrent, writes @AJConstantini https://t.co/JUqT5uHv1r
— Brussels Signal (@brusselssignal) April 24, 2026
