The German right-wing Alternative for Germany party (AfD) will lose a lot of support among voters before the next general election, according to culture minister Wolfram Weimer (Christian Democratic Union CDU).
“My prognosis is that AfD will be at 9 per cent in 2029,” Weimer said today on the Berlin Playbook podcast.
At the last general election in February, the CDU got 28 per cent of the vote and AfD 21 per cent – the next general election is scheduled for 2029.
Weimer also reiterated the CDU’s commitment to the cordon sanitaire, a self-imposed ban on co-operating with the right-wingers. “The cordon sanitaire is an ethical category,” Weimer said.
“We as the political centre have a fundament of values, which we can rely upon. AfD does not.”
Weimer accused the right-wing party of relying on stirring up resentment instead.
Weimer is a journalist and former editor-in-chief of newspapers Welt and Berliner Morgenpost who became minister of culture and media under Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) in 2025.
He said he did not believe in a “blue wave of success” – blue being the party colour of AfD.
In a July interview with left-wing news site The Pioneer, Weimer had said the current administration of Chancellor Friedrich Merz “needs to make some serious progress on a few thing to break the blue wave”.
Bernd Baumann, parliamentary secretary of AfD, called Weimer’s latest comments “wishful thinking by the CDU”, saying on Welt TV today: “I think that is ridiculous. There are no indications for that at all … The people want the real change that Merz has promised.
“The CDU are more likely to get to nine per cent than we are.
“The Christian Democrats have lost a lot of credibility with the voters by officially adopting our topics and then producing leftist-Green policy,” Baumann added.
German polls and voter surveys also show no sign of AfD losing support.
Indeed, the Merz administration suffered a blow with a survey by YouGov published on September 17 that showed AfD ahead of CDU for the first time ever with 27 versus 26 per cent.
Today, AfD tied with the CDU in a Politbarometer poll by State broadcaster ZDF.
Both parties came in at 26 per cent with Merz’s junior coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), receiving 15 per cent of the hypothetical vote.
According to the ZDF poll, though, 63 per cent of Germans still support the cordon sanitaire while 34 per cent want to see it abolished.
Among declared CDU voters, 74 per cent were in favour of continuing to refuse any c0-operation with the AfD.
