Bucharest Nine and the Three Seas Initiative remain unequal to the task
On paper, NATO’s eastern flank, stretching from Norway and Finland in the Arctic to Romania and Bulgaria on the Black Sea, forms a coherent geopolitical frontline in the…
The rise of the sub-national power: Why mayors and regional bosses will rule the world
It is not an accident that the man most likely to replace Keir Starmer as British Prime Minister is Andy Burnham, the directly elected Mayor of Greater Manchester.
How Farage made it through the danger zone
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party was the runaway winner of Britain’s local elections last week, winning almost 1,500 councillor seats on city and county governing bodies…
Long-range strike is Europe’s best defence
After years of neglect and dithering, defence is now firmly established at the top of the European policy agenda.
Tech has broken our entire world model, but we are in denial
Geopolitics is in flux, history has “returned”, there is war, political upheaval and technological disruption everywhere: These matters command an overwhelming share of…
Is populism a distraction from a more important fight?
The sinister news this week that British courts have greenlighted the police’s use of Live Facial Recognition (LFR) technology in public spaces is yet another demolition…
To predict Trump’s legacy, look to Henry VIII
President Trump’s recent attack on Pope Leo XIV has caused consternation and not a little surprise in some quarters of elite opinion as well as among many Christians –…
Three military lessons from the Iran war
The announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran was a welcome development, although many of its details, as well as the actual facts on the ground in the…
From world order to global jungle
The decline and fall of the so-called post-war rules-based international order has quickly moved from prophecy or speculation to directly observable fact.
The future of defence is increasingly private
The dizzying pace of military technology and tactical innovation that we are experiencing at present is outstripping the ability of the public – and even specialist –…
What if America ‘loses’ the Iran war?
The fact that the joint US-Israeli attack on Iran has not gone to plan is by now patently obvious – most clearly in President Trump’s insistent pleas with European allies…
Trump’s choice: Go big or go home
As the ramifications of the joint US-Israeli assault on Iran continue to spread, and as the war is already diverging from what clearly seems to have been the attackers’…
The Iran war will be long, bloody, and ruinous
There can be no doubt of the absolute wickedness and moral depravity of the theocratic totalitarian regime that has had its grip on Iran since 1979.
The decline of liberty
Never was there more high-minded talk about republican ideals in ancient Rome than in the age of Augustus, the first de facto emperor who definitively buried the Republic.
Ten years on, is European populism on a road to nowhere?
Ever since populist-nationalism – or national-populism, if you like – broke through the establishment barriers in 2015/16 with Trump and Brexit, the general opinion has…
Europe’s unbreakable dependency on American AI
The global AI race has become the defining feature of our times. It is now taking place on an unfathomable scale and speed, and cutting across all domains.
How might a functional ‘M12’ grouping of middle powers look like?
As world order frays and old alliances falter, the search is on for new solutions to stabilise the international system while preserving at least some of the principles and…
Four scenarios for the post-rules world
The Greenland psychodrama together with some of the startling opinions aired in Davos last week – especially Mark Carney’s definitive language on the end of the rules-based…
Trump’s Greenland gambit is not funny anymore
The inscrutable workings of Donald Trump’s mind seem to be fixated on the “acquisition” of Greenland to a degree and in a manner that is by now unusual even for him,…
Embrace the chaos
It has generally been the tendency of every generation to think that its own times are somehow worse and/or more disruptive than those of the preceding age or even than what…
Under Trump, America is fulfilling its Roman destiny
At long last, in its 250th year, the American Republic has caught up with its explicitly Roman founding model.
The only way out may be revolutionary thinking
Amid all the public discourse about the threat of political extremism – especially of the Right but also of the Left – and the constant fretting about “division” and…
How will Europe respond?
Without any doubt, this time Europe really has arrived at the proverbial crossroad.
A new tripolar world order is emerging without Europe
Europe has had a good run.
‘Who lost Ukraine?’: Preview of a political crisis
No one knows exactly how or when the Ukraine war will end. But all realistic scenarios are now unfavourable to Kyiv.
Russia’s pre-war demands may get another look
At the end of 2021, when Russia tabled its draft documents on “legal and security guarantees from the United States and NATO”, demanding a halt to NATO enlargement, a…
Is Putin a good strategist?
Recent footage of shabby Russian troops advancing in Pokrovsk on motorcycles, converted pickup trucks and other civilian vehicles has drawn comparisons with familiar scenes…
Too big to fail? Saving Ukraine would cost Europe almost $400 billion
In the history of ideas around war and strategic confrontation, there are strokes of genius, grave mistakes, and everything in between.
Romania’s vast new Orthodox Cathedral is a victory for Christendom
Few other months in the modern history of Europe can possibly have an equal or better claim of being as profoundly symbolic of its present – and perhaps future – than…
The paradox of Europe’s latent power and the fine line in Putin’s strategy
It is no secret that Europe is in a woeful state and continues to decline. It has long fallen from the peak of its economic success on the eve of the Great Recession.